By Graham Thomas
You can tell when a team has its back firmly up against the wall because there is nowhere else to reach for new explanations.
Wales have tried them all. They’re under-strength, they’re over-cooked, they’re rebuilding, they’re short on preparation time, there are too many rookies, not a big enough player pool, too many overseas players in the way at regional level, the fly-halves are too small, the props are too raw, there are leaves on the line and we’re experiencing exceptional call volumes at this moment in time, so please continue to hold.
You get the picture.
But perhaps now comes the end stage, or at least the near-the-end stage.
Ahead of the second Test against Australia in Melbourne on Saturday, players have started to reach for the “must-win” terminology.
🏉 Wales have named their side to face Australia in the second Test in Melbourne on Saturday.
Cameron Winnett and James Botham come in for the injured Josh Hathaway and Aaron Wainwright. pic.twitter.com/SzCAxHfLIJ
— BBC ScrumV (@BBCScrumV) July 10, 2024
Ospreys centre Owen Watkin has gone early. He’s called this game a “must-win” encounter and also talked about “non-negotiables.”
“We were massively disappointed with the result in the first Test, because we went into the game fully believing we could win,” says Watkin.
“We left a lot of opportunities out there, and we weren’t happy with the penalty count and the errors we made.
“There is still a positive vibe in the camp, and we need a win on Saturday. It is now non-negotiable.
“We put ourselves in a position to win last weekend but the penalty and error count let us down and we will try to put that right. We just fell short last weekend, and we don’t want that to happen again.”
“That’s disappointing for him and disappointing for us”
Wales head coach Warren Gatland on Aaron Wainwright missing their second Test against Australia due to his hamstring injury ❌#BBCRugby pic.twitter.com/1PiV5NRKYJ
— BBC ScrumV (@BBCScrumV) July 11, 2024
But is it really must-win? Probably not for coach Warren Gatland, even though another defeat would make it nine in succession.
The Welsh Rugby Union don’t want to get rid of Gatland. It would be messy, hugely expensive, and worse still for those who appointed him little more than 18 months ago, it would expose the poor judgement demonstrated in that decision.
Never go back is the old adage and it’s often more right than wrong when it comes to returning coaches.
Like every Wales supporter, the Union want the turnaround to start at AAMI Park, but the bookmakers are giving little encouragement that will actually happen.
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James Botham Drafted In As Wales Make Changes To Face Wallabies
Read here: https://t.co/GSi7anRh5j#WalesRugby #WALvAUS #DaiRugby pic.twitter.com/CSHidbx0mb
— Dai Sport (@Dai_Sport_) July 11, 2024
The first Test may have been a tight affair for the most part, before Wales lost 25-16 but DragonBet don’t see this contest as difficult to call.
You can also get Wales at 4/5 with a 10.5 points start and the Wallabies to win by more than 12 points is only 11/10.
Should Wales fail to win, then their next Test match is not until November when they play Fiji in Cardiff.
It means they will go over a year between their last win – against Georgia in October of last year at the World Cup – and the possibility of their next in the autumn.
Full-back Cameron Winnett and flanker James Botham will replace the injured Josh Hathaway and Aaron Wainwright for the second Test against Australia in Melbourne 🏉#BBCRugby pic.twitter.com/CJlmG88QhK
— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) July 11, 2024
Not many coaches can go 12 months without winning and survive, but Gatland has a lot of credit in the bank thanks to his first hugely successful spell in charge.
But that era and those trophies now feel an awful long time ago and the truth is that the New Zealander has not been able to sustain that success – with the Lions, with the Chiefs, or with Wales – for the past four years.
You have to go back to 1969 for the last time Wales beat Australia on their own soil which may be another factor in the conversation about their chances on Saturday.
Connecting 100 years of rugby history 🏉
On Saturday, referee Nic Berry will use the same whistle that was used in the Invincibles’ match against England in 1925.
With thanks to the New Zealand Rugby Museum for loaning the whistle. #1924Invincibles pic.twitter.com/xrtxKURumM
— New Zealand Rugby (@NZRugby) July 11, 2024
They are not the only team from the Six Nations finding it going on tour this summer, though.
Ireland lost 27-10 to South Africa last week, whilst England were edged out 16-15 against England.
The chances of Ireland are England recovering quickly, however, are viewed as better than those of Wales.
England are 7/2 to beat the All Blacks, whilst Ireland are near even money with an 8.5 points start, compared to the 10.5 start for Wales.
If you’re looking for something harder to call, then France are 6/4 to repeat their first Test victory over Argentina, with the Pumas favourites at 8/15.