The Six Nations is on the horizon. Robin Davey says the evidence of all the autumn Tests is that Wales face three games against in-form teams who could de-rail Warren Gatland’s campaign even before it has got moving.

 

Wales’ unimpressive autumn series is over and though there’s the small matter of Europe and Guinness Pro14 derby clashes to come first, attention will rapidly turn to what promises to be a seismic opening Six Nations clash against Scotland.

Make a date for February 3, for the outcome of that clash between the Celtic rivals at the Principality Stadium will have a major effect on this year’s tournament.

The Scots have well and truly revived under new head coach Gregor Townsend and currently occupy the heady heights of equal fifth position in World Rugby’s ratings – already drawing level with their previous best position.

Propelling them into that lofty spot was their remarkable 53-24 victory over Australia just after they ran world champions New Zealand mightily close.

They will, therefore, head to Cardiff with a new found confidence and every chance of finishing higher than their fourth place last season, though they ended up on equal points -14 – with Ireland and France.

On top of that, they are scoring tries for fun thanks to Townsend and his approach. They’ve scored 41 tries in their last eleven games, just four less than Ireland but four more than England and 21 more than Wales.

It is in that department where Wales have struggled the most, managing just 20 tries in their last 11 matches as the team labours to adopt a new, more attacking style compared with the more direct rugby they have been playing.

True, they did achieve a 50-50 result in their autumn series, but apart from their customary defeat by the All Blacks, who they haven’t beaten in 30 attempts since 1953, they also lost for the 13th successive time against Australia.

Their two wins were both narrow – against the developing Georgia team in a highly disappointing game, and against probably the worst South African team in their history.

Wales romped into a comfortable lead against the once-mighty Springboks whose defence was leaky beyond words, then allowed them to hit back and even take the lead before finally closing it out via a late Leigh Halfpenny penalty.

Hardly the kind of form to take into the Six Nations against that rejuvenated Scotland team,  never mind England who will be next up at Twickenham. Eddie Jones’ men have continued to sweep all before them with a lot more to come, surely.

After that it’s Ireland, relatively fresh from their record-breaking 38-3 win against a South Africa side Wales struggled to overcome. By that time, Wales could be at – or very near – the bottom of the Six Nations table with just Italy and France to come.

So, on that basis they will struggle to improve on their fifth-placed finish last season when their ten points was four fewer than Ireland, France and Scotland, only the pointless, hapless Italians below them.

That is the glass half empty scenario, but the glass half-full one will hopefully see the return of a number of leading players absent from the autumn series to give them a boost.

Liam Williams and Lions man-of-the-series Jonathan Davies, just voted BBC Wales sports personality of the year, Sam Warburton, Samson Lee, Jake Ball and Justin Tipuric were key men missing – a real body blow – while Rhys Webb, Ken Owens, Tom Francis, Owen Williams, Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland were not there for part of the series either through injury or unavailability.

That gave one or two players the opportunity to break through in a big way. Topping that particular poll were Josh Navidi and Hadleigh Parkes.

Navidi was so impressive that even Warburton and Tipuric will find it difficult to break back in, though Warburton can, of course, play at six.

New Zealand-born Parkes, who only qualified for Wales on the day of the South Africa game under the three-year residency rule, celebrated with two tries in a pretty spectacular debut.

Wales should have no qualms about starting with Navidi and Parkes in the Six Nations should injuries prevail – or even if they don’t – while Hallam Amos, though already capped, was another who made real progress with his elusive running.

Head coach Warren Gatland took the opportunity to blood some youngsters and try out some more – players like Leon Brown in the former category and Owen Williams in the latter.

Gatland is looking to exploit the 10-12 axis in much the same way as he did with Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell for the Lions, aiming for a more expansive approach.

It succeeded, to a degree, but requires a lot more polish. Much the same can be said for the entire Welsh team-and their coaches.