Bob Bradley remains convinced Swansea City can defy the odds and escape relegation but admits Saturday’s game at home to Crystal Palace is critical to their chances.
Statistically, history suggests the Swans have a one-in-three chance of avoiding the drop from the Premier League.
Of the 12 clubs who have taken six points or less from their opening dozen matches, only three have survived – Everton (1995), Derby (2001), Wigan (2012) and Sunderland (2016).
Bradley considered the probabilities but insisted: “It’s like a twist on: ‘Is the glass half empty or half full?’ It’s like: ‘Is it a third full or two-thirds empty? My glass is a third full, for sure.
“The bottom line is the spot we are in creates a big challenge and the response to that situation, the determination and strength to say we are not done yet, are all part of it. It has been done four times, we have to find a way to be the fifth.”
No club would appear to present a better opportunity than free-falling Palace, who have the worst record for 2016 across the entire four divisions.
Bradley came close to his first victory as manager – and his team’s first since the opening day of the season – last week at Everton, but eventually had to settle for a 1-1 after a late equaliser.
Bradley added: “I understand there can be a big shift and all those factors that make this game incredibly important in the course of our season.
“The point at Everton was a good one, it has been a while since they lost a home match. But I felt disappointed for the players because I saw a team that did a lot right and I saw the emotion of the moment.
“I am not going to be satisfied until we get this thing all the way turned around. I still went out of my way this week so the players see the positives and that we must carry this into Crystal Palace.
“Must win, will win – we just have to have a way now to be strong and positive, take things that are going in a good direction and make it count.”
Much is likely to depend on the scoring and creative talent of Gylfi Sigurdsson, who looks set to continue in the withdrawn striker role that he occupied at Everton.
The Icelander has scored four times so far this season, while Borja Bastón, the £15m club-record signing from Atlético Madrid, and Fernando Llorente, who joined from Sevilla for £5m, have managed just one goal apiece.
Bradley added: “Gylfi works hard and does a great job there. He comes away from defenders and gives us another option and forces defenders to make decisions.
“It helps us string more passes together and you need your forward players to come away from the defence and find pockets of space. I was not satisfied with parts of the other games in that area.”