The Six Nations starts this weekend and as ever there are more questions about what could happen than there are firm answers. Ben Gould considers all the contenders.
The 2020 edition of the Six Nations promises to be enthralling. The aftermath of the World Cup in Japan has marked a changing of the guard and the beginning of a new cycle.
Fresh narratives are sprouting from the camps of all nations, and we wait to see which of the newcomers are ready to cement their place on the international stage.
England
Since his arrival in 2015, Eddie Jones has delivered some of the most fearsome performances ever seen by the men in white. Back-to-back Six Nations titles in 2016 and 2017 sandwiched a 3-0 series whitewash of Australia on foreign soil and a record 18- game winning streak.
Jones claims that a dip in form in the 2018 season was part of a necessary evolution, as a number of senior players were moved along in favour of youth. It was a decision that was ultimately vindicated with the annihilation of the All Blacks in the World Cup semi-final.
When at peak intensity, England can seem unstoppable. However, a lack of consistency has hamstrung for a couple of years.
After racing to a 15-0 lead against the All Blacks in November 2018, they conceded 16 unanswered points and lost the game.
Last year’s tournament saw England demolish Ireland and France in successive weeks, but follow with a lacklustre performance in Cardiff. They led Scotland 31-0, but were fortunate to escape with a draw.
And, of course, after blowing New Zealand out of the water in Japan, they failed to replicate the same intensity in the World Cup Final.
Whether these inconsistencies are symptomatic of Jones’ ferocious training methods remains to be seen.
There can be no doubt that if England reach anything like the heights they did in Japan, they will canter to the title, with home games against Wales and Ireland.
Minimal changes are expected to the XV that took the field in Japan. Without a
specialist No.8 in the squad, England will look to the likes of Kyle Sinckler and Manu Tuilagi to do the bulk of the carrying, whilst the back row duo of Sam Underhill and Tom Curry will wreak havoc at the breakdown.
Prediction: 1st
Ireland
The Leinster juggernaut continues to roll on as they are yet to lose a game this season. Their success is built on an outstanding school system, feeding seamlessly into their academy set up.
The latest generation of Leinster prodigies has created white hot competition for places within the Irish squad, and a number of senior internationals are at risk of being usurped.
Among the new caps is athletic No.8 Caelan Doris who looks to have all the skills required to become a top class international.
But to accommodate the 21-year-old, head coach Andy Farrell has opted to shift CJ Stander to six, and former captain Peter O’Mahoney to the bench.
Future prospect Max Deegan will have to bide his time for his first cap whilst uncapped hooker Ronan Kelleher is viewed as the long term replacement for Rory Best.
Competition for places can be found in every position, with props Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy under pressure from Andrew Porter and David Kilcoyne respectively.
Connor Murray is also under stress, given the sensational form of Ulster scrum half, John Cooney.
In Chris Farrell, Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw and Gary Ringrose, Ireland have four, top of the range centres to choose from, with Jacob Stockdale, Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway, Will Addison and Keith Earls all qualified to walk into a starting back three position.
Head coach Farrell has all the tools available to him to take Ireland back to the top of the world game and with Stuart Lancaster ensuring Leinster’s Irish stars of the future are ready to enter the international arena, Ireland will be quietly confident despite a dismal World Cup showing.
Farrell’s task is to develop the game plan from the often static kicking game employed by Joe Schmidt, to one that is more closely aligned with the fluidity of the Leinster Invincibles.
With home games first up against Scotland and Wales, Ireland may well go to Twickenham in round three to decide the outcome of the tournament.
Prediction: 2nd
Wales
Warren Gatland’s legacy is a Welsh public that expects success. No longer content with the plucky loser label, it has fallen to Wayne Pivac to continue this trend.
Despite Gatland’s unprecedented run, there has been an underlying disquiet among Welsh fans who yearn for a more attractive brand of rugby. Pivac may be just the man to deliver what the Welsh public so desire, however supporters should also be careful what they wish for.
How long will fans tolerate “attractive” rugby if the results start to slip?
It is unthinkable for the side to return to the days of desperately avoiding the wooden spoon and perhaps with some level of caution, Pivac himself has insisted it is evolution and not revolution.
Winning at home is a non-negotiable and Italy first up should provide the ideal start.
But Wales enter the tournament with some significant raising selections for the first game. Promising Saracens centre, Nick Tompkins earns only a bench berth as Wales search for a long term replacement for Jonathan Davies by shifting George North in from the wing.
With opinions on the residency rule aside, Johnny McNicoll has been one of the outstanding regional players since his arrival in 2016 and he deserves his starting spot on the wing.
The back row looks perfectly balanced with the long-awaited return of Taulupe Faletau at No.8 and fans will be glad to see Rhys Webb back on the teamsheet after his stint in Toulon.
Dan Biggar’s attacking game has flourished under the tutorship of Northampton coach Chris Boyd and he will look to replicate his slick club form on the international stage.
Many pundits have dismissed Wales’ title chances, with difficult fixtures away in Dublin and Twickenham on the horizon. However, if Pivac is successful in tweaking the attacking shape whilst maintaining the rock solid basics that Gatland instilled, Wales could yet challenge for the title.
Prediction: 3rd
France
Forget the cliché, for the past 10 years we have known exactly which French side is going to show up – one that is full of talent and promise, but is poorly drilled and conditioned.
They are physical in defence, strong in the scrum, and stubborn at the breakdown. But when subject to pressure, they become ill-disciplined, tired and are error prone.
This year sees new coach Fabien Galthie leading the latest French revolution, with one eye on a home World Cup in 2023. Most intriguing is the appointment of defence maestro Shaun Edwards among the backroom staff.
Having turned down Sir Clive Woodward and Warren Gatland because of a reluctance to hire a foreign head coach, the signing of Edwards marks a potential sea change in French rugby.
Edwards, the architect of much of Wales’ success over the past decade, will look to bring mental fortitude and a discipline that has been missing from the side in recent years.
The French backline is hugely exciting on paper, with Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamck, Damian Penaud and Virimi Vakatawa all with the potential to become world stars.
Paul Willemse and Bernard Le Roux provide South African bulk in the second row, and Toulose hooker Julien Marchand replaces the injured destroyer of worlds, Camille Chat.
New cap Mohamed Haouas starts at tight-head in what will be a stern examination of his scrummaging skills against England.
France have as much talent as any team in the world, but whether they can harness it is another question.
Prediction: 4th
Italy
Italy were unfortunate in the World Cup to be drawn in a pool with both South Africa and New Zealand, and opportunities to show improvements were limited.
The Italian regions no longer roll over to have their bellies tickled and Benetton are now a considerable force in the Guinness Pro 14.
Despite the imminent retirement of Sergio Parisse, Italy’s strength remains their back row. Jake Polledri, at blindside flanker, was one of the stand-out performers at the World Cup, consistently making line-breaks and monster tackles.
Born in Bristol, Polledri’s form for Gloucester was overlooked by Eddie Jones, allowing him to be capped by Italy in 2018, something England may come to regret.
Alongside him, Abraham Steyn and Sebastian Negri make up a fearsome Italian back row.
The Azzurri will fancy their chances when Scotland travel to Rome in round three – especially if the Scots arrive without a win, having played Ireland and England in the opening rounds.
It makes that Italy v Scotland fixture, once again, a potential wooden spoon decider.
Prediction: 5th
Scotland
After a disastrous World Cup, Scotland will be desperate to turn their fortunes around and no-one more so than head coach Gregor Townsend.
Despite a lot of goodwill towards him and his belief in attractive rugby, his tenure will be called into question if the poor results continue.
At the World Cup, the Scots produced a lifeless display against Ireland, who bullied them in the opening 40, before heavy rain ruled out any chance of a comeback.
Their hopes were then extinguished by Japan, who won all of their pool games, playing some of the best attacking rugby in recent memory.
Scotland resembled only a poor copy of the Japanese side, who created an unstructured game by playing high tempo, high risk, high reward rugby.
The difference was the skill levels of the Japanese – their front five in particular highlighting deficiencies in the Scottish game.
Scotland simply did not have the players to deliver the crisp passing required of them. They were too often caught behind the gain-line, leading to further errors.
The fall-out between Townsend and mercurial fly half, Finn Russell, opens the door for Adam Hastings, who now has a shot at a run of games on the big stage.
New cap Nick Haining will look to inject some dynamism from No.8, alongside the outstanding Hamish Watson at openside.
The Scottish three-quarters have the potential to cut loose, with Huw Jones finding form and keeping Northampton centre Rory Hutchinson on the bench.
But Scotland’s pack must deliver go forward and accurate handling if they are to free up space for the likes of Stuart Hogg and Blair Kinghorn out wide.
Prediction: 6th
SIX NATIONS PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT 2004-2019
Alun Wyn Jones won the lot in the 2019 Guinness Six Nations – Grand Slam, Triple Crown and the
Player of the Tournament title. The Wales skipper became the fifth Welshman to be voted the top
player in the competition.
Player of the Tournament
2004 Gordon D’Arcy (Ireland) 2005 Martyn Williams (Wales) 2006 Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland)
2007 Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland) 2008 Shane Williams (Wales) 2009 Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland)
2010 Tommy Bowe (Ireland) 2011 Andrea Masi (Italy) 2012 Dan Lydiate (Wales)
2013 Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) 2014 Mike Brown (England) 2015 Paul O’Connell (Ireland)
2016 Stuart Hogg (Scotland) 2017 Stuart Hogg (Scotland) 2018 Jacob Stockdale (Ireland)
2019 Alun Wyn Jones (Wales)