In his first column for Dai Sport former Wales and Lions captain Phil Bennett looks at the European action for the four Welsh regions at the weekend and says the Scarlets can cause a major surprise.
Whisper it quietly, but Toulon are not the force of old and I’m backing the Scarlets to beat them on Saturday.
That’s not just the red blood of a Llanelli man coursing through my veins, but a dispassionate look at where the former European champions are at present.
I watch a lot of Top 14 on TV and it is clear Toulon are not the formidable power they once were.
They are third in the domestic table, but have already lost five times in 13 matches and their signature move of signing the best players in the world every year appears to have come to an end.
They still have some of the biggest names in world rugby, but Ma’a Nonu is not the same player who ruled the midfield for years with the All Blacks. Bryan Habana is another legend of the sport for whom time has stolen his greatest asset – speed.
It will still be a huge order for the Scarlets to win out in France, though, because so few teams come away from there with a victory. Toulon sometimes stutter and stumble, but they usually find a way to win, even if they have to rely on the goal-kicking of Leigh Halfpenny.
But I think if the Scarlets can get their international back division all fit and on the field, then they can cause Toulon plenty of problems.
Two years ago, the Scarlets went there and stayed within 10 points of a stronger Toulon side in a gutsy display. This current team – who have won seven Guinness Pro 12 matches on the trot – are stronger and have more of a cutting edge.
It was a blow for them to lose their New Zealand wing Johnny McNicholl to a hernia operation after just one promising game, but their young backs Steff Evans and Steff Hughes are both capable of coming in and making an impact.
They need to be confident and stand up to what is still a huge and powerful Toulon pack. But if Rhys Patchell – who is becoming more astute and improving all the time at fly-half – can move that Toulon pack around the field, then I think the Scarlets can give themselves opportunities.
The depth in this Scarlets squad is now underlined by the fact they have three top quality scrum-halves in Gareth Davies, Aled Davies and Jonathan Evans – all of whom could look at home in this fixture.
The big question for the Scarlets is whether or not they can have Liam Williams and Jonathan Davies fit and even if they get them on the field, whether they can find their best form.
Liam inspires this Scarlets team with moments of courage and class – beating men on the counter-attack, taking a high catch under pressure, or drifting outside a marker to take a pass and then zig-zagging through a cover defence.
It still saddens me that a country which has such a solid record in the Six Nations over the last decade now finds itself with just one team in Europe’s premier competition.
The Ospreys, the Cardiff Blues and the Newport Gwent Dragons have to make do with the European Challenge Cup, but their ambition should always be to get out of that and into the main event.
The Ospreys, I know, are devastated to be out of the Champions Cup, but at least they can achieve a consolation of winning the Challenge Cup even if it doesn’t give them automatic entry into the top tournament.
I tipped the Ospreys to win the Challenge Cup before the season started and I still see no reason to change that prediction.
I was expecting them to win in Grenoble on Thursday night and I’m still confident they can overcome the postponement to win there 24 hours later.
Grenoble are more concerned about trying to stay in the Top 14, whilst the Ospreys’ recent run of form in the Pro 12 has been impressive.
Alun Wyn Jones is providing the kind of on-field inspiration that makes me feel he should be a challenger to Dylan Hartley as the Lions captain, whilst Justin Tipuric’s class makes him the most likely Welshman at present to be a starting Test Lion.
Dan Biggar, Sam Davies, Ashley Beck, Dan Evans, the emergence of Keelan Giles – there is a lot of quality in that Ospreys back line to make the most of the power of their pack.
The Cardiff Blues have a huge match at home to Bath which they will only win if they can tighten up their defence. Against Ulster, it was appalling.
The Blues have now lost five out of their last six matches and it’s clear to me they are badly missing the go-forward power of Nick Williams at No.8.
I know that Danny Wilson is massively disappointed with his team’s recent performances, but back-to-back fixtures against Bath – and the historic feel of these Anglo-Welsh clashes – should mean as much to the players as it will to their supporters. I’d hope to see a reaction to that Ulster display.
The Dragons face Worcester, another club who have priorities elsewhere, given their struggles near the bottom of the Aviva Premiership.
It will be tough for Dragons, but it will depend on Worcester’s mindset. They don’t want to be relegated, but they are lucky Bristol are rock bottom and almost adrift.
The Dragons have shown promise in recent weeks, but were shocking with some abysmal defence against a second string Leinster side last week. Watching those back-up Leinster players strolling through the Dragons’ defence was an embarrassment.
Last season, Kingsley Jones’ side went to Gloucester and won. Their fans were singing and it was their best victory of the season.
They need to do that again and take advantage of all Worcester’s insecurity.