Not a known gambler, Rob Howley has to decide whether to shake up his Wales team or stick with what has so far been a losing hand. Robin Davey argues a cautious man will play a cautious game.

 

Yet again Wales find themselves at a dangerous crossroads with interim coach Rob Howley the latest at the helm to be in the firing line.

It was ever thus, from John Ryan and Ron Waldron – who both resigned – to Alan Davies and Gareth Jenkins – who were sacked – while there’s been an occasional New Zealander in charge for good measure, plus an Australian in Alec Evans.

Now, it’s Howley in the hot seat and while he has the security of a long term contract, it’s hard to find certainty in the professional age and he has a huge decision to make in the next week.

Wales are already out of the running for the Six Nations title after a disastrous second-half at Murrayfield when they conceded 20 points and managed nothing in reply.

So, on that basis, he could well use the next two matches against Ireland and France to throw caution to the winds and draft some youngsters in, players of exciting potential like Sam Davies, Keelan Giles and Steff Evans.

But it’s far from being that simple and there is much more at stake than restoring some pride in the remaining two games and maybe securing a mid-table position.

For if Wales do lose those games against Ireland and France they will fall out of the world’s top eight ranked teams and be put in a World Cup pool of death in Japan in 2019.

They were there in 2015, of course, alongside hosts England and Australia and came through it with flying colours, memorably beating England.

But it’s not an experience they would want to repeat and it would be tempting fate to believe they could do it again

So, Howley, not the most popular of coaches to be in charge of Wales, is in a decidedly tricky position. Does he remain with the tried and tested or does he experiment for two must-win Six Nations matches.

Either, he remains pretty much with the side which almost got the better of England in a terrific encounter at the Principality Stadium, but failed dismally in that second half at Murrayfield.

Or, he decides that line-up is pretty stale, going nowhere fast with a few past their sell-by date and injects some youthful enthusiasm in the form of Davies and either Giles or Evans.

There is a clamour for the second course of action while many also believe Wales would benefit from the switching of Liam Williams from wing to full-back with his attacking instincts, his angles of running and finishing ability compared with Leigh Halfpenny who offers less of a threat.

It’s a tough one to call, but Howley will, I’m fairly sure, go for the safe option. He’ll come down on the side of experience for two undeniably difficult tests against in-form Ireland and a reviving French team.

He’ll say this is not the time to throw in the youngsters, it’s not the occasion to experiment and argue their development will be better served by going on the summer tour to the South Seas.

That’s the way it works at the top of Welsh rugby and Howley is merely the latest in a long line, even if there’s little or no chance of him being removed if Wales do go down the tubes in their final Six Nations games.

Ryan resigned after a heavy 34-6 defeat by England at Twickenham, though far worse was to follow when Wales shipped 71 points in Australia and 99 in South Africa.

Waldron loaded the Welsh team with players from his own Neath club, was blasted by the media and quit, citing ill health, and Kevin Bowring finished after Wales lost 14 of their 29 matches under him.

Alan Davies was sacked on the eve of the World Cup after losing 17 games and winning just one more than that while he was in charge and Gareth Jenkins was dismissed in Nantes after Wales were humiliated by Fiji in another World Cup, not even afforded the courtesy of leading the squad home first.

Now, it’s Howley’s turn to feel the heat. And it will turn into a raging inferno if Wales do go down against Ireland and France and land themselves in the same World Cup pool as two of the top eight nations in Japan.

So what will he do on the selection front? Play safe and go with what he knows, I’ll wager. If he fails will he quit? No, for he’s there until 2019 and the WRU are hardly likely to pay off one of their coaches on a decent salary.

The country will hold its breath in the next fortnight over both selection and results – and so will Howley.