Rob Howley has promised Wales will chase a runners-up Six Nations spot and fourth place in the world by beating France in Paris.
Both scenarios are still possible on Saturday, if other results go in Howley’s favour. On the other hand, should France end their five-game losing streak against Wales – a sequence that would have been unthinkable a decade ago – then Wales could still finish the tournament as low as fifth.
Victory for Wales and an England win in Ireland on the same day would lift Wales into fourth spot ahead of May’s 2019 World Cup pool draw.
We feel in good shape like we did for the Ireland game, and we are looking for a similar result,” said Howley.
“We have talked about the opportunity to go fourth in the world, and we are relying on other results to go second in the championship. We are aware of that.
“We have the opportunity to go into the next World Cup ranked fourth in the world. That is a large incentive for players and the coaches.”
Wales may have won their last five encounters against France, but Guy Noves’ side have beaten Scotland and Italy in this tournament, and also pushed England and Ireland hard.
“I think that we will go in against a very good France side,” said Howley.
“Having watched the England and Ireland games, they were potentially unlucky not to come away with more wins, and likewise with ourselves.
“One game can be far different to the next, so we need to go out to Paris and perform to the level we have in training.
“I was really pleased with the impact off the bench [against Ireland]. In the course of the championship, it hasn’t been good enough, but against Ireland the bench came on and did their job.
“I keep mentioning about the 23 players – not about the 15 – and just consistently saying the same message to the players.
“The bench made the difference, and ultimately in international games that is the difference between winning and losing.
“Thankfully last weekend we were on the right side of that.”
Wales showed a lot of character in their 22-9 win over Ireland last time out, while France finally shook off a tenacious Italy to run out convincing 40-18 winners.
France have made one change to the starting line-up that beat the Azzurri with lock Sebastien Vahaamahina coming in for Julien Le Devedec. On the bench Guy Noves has made two changes with hooker Camille Chat coming in for Christopher Tolofua and flanker Damien Chouly also making the bench following his call-up at the beginning of the week.
Wales have made no changes to the side that beat Ireland with Howley coming under criticism for not blooding any new players – especially Sam Davies – or to increase Wales’ attacking options by switching Liam Williams to full-back and Leigh Halfpenny to wing.
France No.8 Louis Picamoles has been one of the stand out performers in this year’s tournament and tops the defenders beaten stats with 20.
It is not only his ability to carry and crash through tackles that makes him so dangerous – Picamoles also has some slick skills and his offloads and passing have created a lot of damage.
France attack a lot off Picamoles’ carries and Wales are well aware of what he brings to the table: “We know if we can stop him on the front foot then we have got a good chance,” said Wales No 8 Ross Moriarty.
“He is a huge man, a very experienced player. Hopefully we can do a job on him.”
Wales hooker Ken Owens will win his 50th cap and his form in the tournament so far has seen him surge up the pecking order to become a Test Lions contender.
As the form of rivals Rory Best of Ireland and England’s Dylan Hartley has faltered, Cannonball Ken, as he is known, has kept rolling forward and Howley believes his influence for Wales is significant.
“Ken is playing well, isn’t he?” Howley said. “He’s been outstanding and has certainly put his hand up for the end of the season tours.
“He gives players confidence around him and is a great senior player with experience. He has a great opportunity [to make the Lions]. He just needs to concentrates on his process and what he needs to do against France.”
France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Remi Lamerat, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin; 1 Cyril Baille, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 3 Rabah Slimani, 4 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 5 Yoann Maestri, 6 Fabien Sanconnie, 7 Kevin Gourdon, 8 Louis Picamoles.
Replacements: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Uini Atonio, 18 Eddy Ben Arous, 19 Julien Le Devedec, 20 Damien Chouly, 21 Antoine Dupont, 22 Francois Trinh-Duc, 23 Yoann Huget.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb; 1 Rob Evans, 2 Ken Owens, 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Jake Ball, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 6 Sam Warburton, 7 Justin Tipuric, 8 Ross Moriarty.
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Jamie Roberts.