England are the bookies’ favourites to beat Wales by five points, but have the coaches made the right selections calls? Dai Sport columnist Phil Bennett thinks Rob Howley has, but is not so sure about Eddie Jones.

 

Rob Howley has shown courage on his team selection and I think he’ll be rewarded with a narrow victory over England.

I may have been tempted to pick Sam Davies at No.10 after his effect from the bench in Rome, but when push came to shove I would probably have stuck with Dan Biggar.

But I’m not the Wales coach. Howley is. Which is why I think he deserves credit for being brave and resisting the pressure to pick Sam.

It would have been so easy for him to curry favour with Wales fans and submit to the clamour for the switch. After all, Rob has not been the most popular bloke in Wales since that autumn series.

But I salute his stubbornness and refusal to be swayed by the outside “noise” as he called it back in November. It shows guts. It shows he trusts his own instincts.

People who bellyache about ignoring the wishes of the rugby public are deluded. This isn’t some TV talent contest. There’s no public vote here.

It’s professional sport and a coach makes the calls by which he then stands or falls.

Biggar – provided he is fit – will do what he always does, and more often does well. He will stand deep, try to control the game rather than open it up himself and probably create more try-scoring chances with his feet than his hands.

Sam will come on when the game starts to lose its structure and the gaps appear – holes which you would expect him to exploit because that’s his talent, the ability to sense a door is about to open.

I must say I fancy Wales a little more after seeing the team picked by Eddie Jones. It’s a selection I think he might regret.

I regard Maro Itoje as one of the best forwards in the world, but that’s an opinion formed watching him as a second row – not a blindside flanker.

I thought he looked a bit uncertain in the back row against France and was caught out a few times.

Sam Warburton knows his way around and for a Number 6, as he now is, he is pretty quick. I expect him to give Otoje a tough evening and together with the speed and skills of Justin Tipuric it could be the key area of the match and where Wales can tilt the balance in their favour.

Jack Clifford and Nathan Hughes are also new to Test rugby. Their discomfort will have nothing to do with the Cardiff or stadium factor – you can forget all that nonsense – it’s purely about the battle on the turf.

That has to go wrong first for the other stuff, such as the atmosphere created by supporters, to have any effect whatsoever.

And it could well go wrong for England. I’m surprised by Jones’s call. I felt he would stick with Tom Wood for a bit of back row know-how at this level.

England badly miss Billy Vunipola and his absence through injury is the biggest blessing Wales could have been given.

Vunipola gives England their energy, their drive. It is his ability to go crashing through tackles that opens up space for England’s backs, not some sleight of hand at half-back.

I felt England would compensate for the lack of Vuniploa by starting with Ben Te’o at No.12 to provide them with some forward thrust – to do a Jamie Roberts type role.

That would have meant moving Owen Farrell from 12 to 10 and leaving out George Ford, but they’re resisted that and I’m not sure they have made the right call.

France would have beaten England last week, if they had carried more confidence and belief – things that Wales have more of.

After a poor season by his standards, Jonathan Davies looked sharp again against Italy and that bodes well for Wales, particularly as Scott Williams and George North also looked effective.

I think the changes at prop give Wales a better chance of a stable scrum, but not a dominant one. That might, though, be enough if Ross Moriarty, Warburton and Tipuric make the breakdown the decisive area.

Wales are trying to evolve their game, we keep being told.

This weekend, I couldn’t care less and neither will three million other Welsh fans.

It’s about winning against England. Always has been and always will be.

I fancy Wales to nick it by a couple of Leigh Halfpenny goal kicks.