Recent history tells us that Swansea City often change their managers between the months of December and February. It’s when Bob Bradley, Garry Monk and Michael Laudrup all departed. Paul Clement is entering the danger period perilously close to the danger zone of the Premier League, but Alun Rhys Chivers argues that Clement’s statistics over nine months suggest it would be foolish for the club to panic.
It’s fair to say that the Swans haven’t had the best of starts this season in the Premier League. They’re currently 15th in the table ahead of a tough trip to Arsenal on Saturday, with only goal difference keeping them away from the drop zone.
And looking at the fixtures to come between now and the New Year, life isn’t about to get any easier for Paul Clement and his team.
A trip to Arsenal rounds off October’s games and November will bring a host of crucial matches if the Swans are to get ahead of teams who could be going toe-to-toe with them for survival come next May.
After hosting Brighton on November 4, the Swans travel to Burnley the following week before welcoming Bournemouth to the Liberty Stadium on November 25. Before the month is out, the Swans take on Clement’s former club and Premier League giants Chelsea on November 29.
A lack of preparation time is likely to present its challenges in December with no fewer than seven matches to contest, the majority of which come against potential relegation rivals come the end of the season.
The month gets underway with a visit to Stoke (December 2) before welcoming West Brom on December 9 and Manchester City just three days later.
A visit to Everton follows on December 16, ahead of Crystal Palace’s visit to the Liberty Stadium on December 23. Between Christmas and New Year, the Swans face an unenviable trip to Liverpool on Boxing Day before Watford travel to south Wales on December 30.
So, the fixture list poses additional problems for Clement when put in the context of the period when managers have traditionally lost their jobs at the club. Aside from Brendan Rodgers whose success led to his appointment at Anfield and Francesco Guidolin’s sacking in October, the last five managerial changes have come between December and February.
Clement has often emphasised that he’s in a results-based business and any decision on his future will certainly be made based on the Swans’ results and performances over these crucial next three months.
Michael Laudrup was sacked in 2014 after six defeats from eight games. Garry Monk had been in the job almost two years when a solitary win from 11 games brought his tenure to an end in 2015-16. They had lost three games in a row when Guidolin was fired last October. And eight points from 11 games brought about American Bob Bradley’s departure just two months later.
However, there is one particular statistic that weighs heavily in Clement’s favour and suggests he has the ability to guide Swansea away from danger.
In managing to pull off a near miracle last season after taking over from Bradley when the Swans were bottom of the table, he has proved he can string victories together when the pressure is severe. He did so when he first took over last January – when the club was bottom of the table with just 12 points from 19 games – and again when a late season surge was required and he managed five victories from six matches.
Those spells mean Clement’s win percentage of 38.89% is actually higher than any other manager since Brendan Rodgers (44.79%) between 2010 and 2012.
A win against Arsenal on Saturday – however unlikely – would increase the percentage to 42.1% and edge him much closer to that of Rodgers.
A loss would reduce it to 36.84%, but even that figure would still keep him second on the list of the last six managers.
Brendan Rodgers 44.79%
Michael Laudrup 34.52%
Garry Monk 36.36%
Francesco Guidolin 36.00%
Bob Bradley 18.18%
Paul Clement 38.89%