Be afraid and be mesmerised, the All Blacks are in town. Except that script won’t wash this time, says Graham Thomas, who suggests a bit more boldness and belief would serve Wales well.
Warren Gatland had a chance to put New Zealand in his cross hairs this week when he was asked if the All Blacks were vulnerable.
The Wales coach – still wary after his bruising at the hands of the Kiwi media this summer – smelt a trap and insisted they are never vulnerable.
“People are saying things about the All Blacks at the moment – someone asked me the question the other day, looking for a headline, were they vulnerable – I don’t think the All Blacks are ever vulnerable,” he said.
“Saturday is their last game of the tour, and they get a break after it. That makes them as dangerous as at any time. They are undefeated on this tour. They know how to win, they know how to grind out performances and they know to come back.”
He was pleased with his answer as he claimed he had scuppered an easy headline, but it was a reply that spoke volumes. Whilst Gatland supposedly pursues boldness, freshness and adventure on the field these days, everything he says off it is cautious, designed to remove attention from the here and now to some distant point in the future.
Most hunters faced with limping, disorientated prey would fancy their chances of a killing, but the All Blacks still carry an air of danger and Wales have long since forgotten how to pull the trigger.
The final Test of New Zealand’s short tour in Cardiff on Saturday should represent a huge opportunity for Gatland’s team, but it is not just history that appears to counter optimism.
By claiming the All Blacks are immune to vulnerability, Gatland has reinforced the view that his players are held back by doubts and feelings of inferiority when they play the world champions.
If he was looking for a trite response he could have said that all teams are vulnerable. Instead, he claimed that one team are immune from it.
It hardly seems like good psychology directed towards his players. Even if the message is more upbeat behind closed doors, public statements set the tone.
Gatland prefers to talk about developing depth for the World Cup in two years’ time than he does about beating New Zealand for the first time in 64 years.
It’s a luxury he would not be afforded if he was national coach in his own country. Steve Hansen can reference the World Cup, but only in the context of a team that keeps winning.
The All Blacks are expected to develop and win at the same time – not one or the other.
Yet their exposure to risk in this fixture is beyond question. They are more than vulnerable to defeat. They are ripe for it.
Scotland sensed it last week, but failed to summon their own conviction until they were chasing a victory in the final stages. But the distress signals from the normally unruffled black beast were clear.
They are without their captain and most influential player, Kieran Read, and their next line of natural leaders, headed by Ben Smith and Brodie Retallick, are at home.
They have been hit by injuries to the extent that there are only three forwards starting – Codie Taylor, Sam Whitelock and Sam Cane – who played in the opening Test against the Lions and five backs – Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty and Rieko Ioane.
Of course, Wales are without Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams – three players good enough to play significant roles in that Lions series – but Wales’ own problems should not mask New Zealand’s.
Gatland has said his players are excited by the challenge, but they should be more excited by the prospect of winning. The wider energising effect of Ireland’s victory over New Zealand this time last year would be comfortably surpassed if Wales were to win for the first time since 1953.
Not only is it a fixture well worth talking up. The prize is worth talking up, too.
New Zealand have been the dominant team in world rugby for so long that the details in their achievements are often under-acknowledged.
They are the top-rated nation in the world and have been for the past eight years. Over that eight-year reign the All Blacks have claimed two World Cups and played 109 Tests, losing just nine with three draws. During that run the All Blacks have a points differential of +2111 and average 4.4 tries a game.
Since the rugby ranking system was brought in by World Rugby just before the 2003 World Cup, the All Blacks have held the top spot for more than 12 years and not been lower than second apart from the month they were introduced – after England’s World Cup win – when they began in third.
For a small nation, with a population similar to Wales’ they are awe-inspiring accomplishments, based on a domestic system that develops quality players like no other.
But the awe has to end here. In 1953, Winston Churchill was prime minister and Stanley Matthews was making that year’s FA Cup final his own. It was a different world.
In this current world, the 2017 All Blacks are vulnerable and Wales have to be bold enough to seize their opportunity.