Wales will name some new faces to face Australia on Saturday, but there will be few surprises, says Robin Davey, who also expects a very familiar outcome in favour of the Wallabies.
Wales are hoping it’ll be lucky 13 when they take on perennial opponents Australia and get their autumn series off to a much-needed winning start at the Principality Stadium on Saturday.
The countdown to the 2019 World Cup really does start now and that is reflected in the number of new, and relatively new, players head coach Warren Gatland has chosen in his squad.
As a consequence, Wales – like the other home nations – go into the series cold, whereas their southern hemisphere opponents have warmed up with the recent Rugby Championship, plus some friendlies since.
Australia, undeniably, have the Indian sign on Wales having won their last 12 games against them, the most recent being last year’s 32-8 triumph.
The Australians have just completed a walloping 63-30 victory over Japan, a margin which would have been considerably greater had the Japanese not rallied late on to give the score a bit more respectability.
And that triumph for the Wallabies came on the back of a notable victory over the All Blacks, their 24-18 win in Brisbane ending their seven-match losing run against the world champions.
So, it’s fair to say Australia have arrived in Cardiff on a bit of a high and full of confidence under the leadership of the dynamic Michael Hooper and the canny coaching of Michael Cheika.
They will surely go in as favourites on Saturday, even if they have left such a gifted player as full back Israel Folau – scorer of 12 tries in his last 10 Tests – at home in order to rest after a daunting schedule.
They achieved their victory over Japan without key half-backs Will Genia and Bernard Foley, both of whom are expected to be fit to face Wales, but still ran in nine tries.
Five of them were scored by formidable centre partnership Tevita Kuridrani and Samu Kerevi, the former grabbing a hat-trick while Reece Hodge, a replacement for Foley, converted all nine tries.
Wales will have to shake off their Australian hoodoo, for not only have they lost their last 12 matches against the Wallabies, they lost 15-6 in the last World Cup despite Australia being down to 13 men, failing even to cross the opposition line.
Wales are expected to be without scrum half Rhys Webb and flanker Justin Tipuric, both struggling with injuries, the back row being a particularly difficult area for Gatland with Sam Warburton, Ross Moriarty, Ellis Jenkins, Ollie Griffiths and James Davies all sidelined.
In their absence Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler are expected to pack down either side of Taulupe Faletau, who has been in prime form for Bath in recent matches.
Gareth Davies would be the obvious replacement for Webb, while, with Jamie Roberts left out of the squad, Gatland is expected to go with Gloucester and former Leicester and Scarlets player Owen Williams to fill the void at 12.
That signals a change of approach as Gatland seeks to emulate his Lions policy of a footballing kind of 10-12 axis when Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell formed a successful partnership.
Wales will present a physical enough approach up front, but the athletic Australians will provide a dynamic challenge with their employment of clever decoy runners and off-loading style.
Without a few leading players and trying to bed in a new style, Wales are likely to be found wanting and I reckon Australia will comfortably take their winning run against them to a lucky 13.