Chris Coleman has set Wales a target of 20 points in order to either take the main road to the World Cup Finals – or the back route through the play-offs.
Wales are currently on 14 points following Tuesday night’s 2-0 victory in Moldova, which lifted them into second place in qualifying group D – a point above the Republic of Ireland, but four adrift of Serbia.
The Wales manager has seen his team win back-to-back matches, following the weekend victory over Austria and is convinced two further victories in their remaining fixtures – away to Georgia and at home to Ireland – will propel Wales into the play-offs for Russia next summer.
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Martin O’Neill’s 1st home defeat in competitive internationals allows @FAWales into 2nd place in Group D. Sides meet next month in Wales pic.twitter.com/W9bE5ANvdk
— Sky Sports Statto (@SkySportsStatto) September 5, 2017
After the group stage concludes on October 10, eight runners-up will be drawn into four pairings, with two-legged play-off ties set for November 9-11 and 12-14, 2017.
The away goals rule will be used to determine a winner of the ties if scores are level after the second leg – whether after 90 minutes or extra time – and four play-off winners will advance to Russia 2018.
But only eight of the nine teams who finish second are eligible for a play-off spot – meaning one team with the least points will miss out.
Results gained against the bottom-ranked sides in each group do not count in the final play-off standings, meaning Wales’ two victories over Moldova do not apply.
At present, Wales sit bottom of that table of best second-placed nations, level on points with Bosnia.
World Cup Play-off table – European Qualifiers (05/09/17)
| P | W | D | L | Pts | GD | ||
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +18 |
| 2 | N Ireland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | +7 |
| 3 | Italy | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | +3 |
| 4 | Iceland | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | +3 |
| 5 | Slovakia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | +6 |
| 6 | Sweden | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | +3 |
| 7 | Montenegro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | +3 |
| 8 | Bosnia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | +2 |
| 9 | Wales | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | +1 |
“I think if you get 20 points you’d be unlucky not to get the play-off spot,” Coleman said.
“That is the aim now. I’ve never been one to look beyond the next game, but realistically we have to get maximum points to give ourselves a chance of second.
“We’ve been here before and that experience will stand us in good stead. We can only do what we can do, take care of business.”
Serbia’s 1-0 win against the Republic in Dublin means they need three points from their final two games to qualify for next summer’s finals in Russia.
But Coleman insists Wales have not given up on top spot after their 2-0 win in Moldova moved them above Ireland into second place.
“It is in Serbia hands,” Coleman conceded after late goals from Hal Robson-Kanu and Aaron Ramsey rewarded their dominance in Chisinau.
“A draw would have been quite good in Dublin. Ireland winning would have been better. Fair play to Serbia, they set the pace. It’s theirs to lose.
“If we have to get through the play-off, no problem. Absolutely, no problem at all.
“We said we had to win the last four games. 50 per cent is done.
“We’ve got a huge game in Tblisi next (against Georgia), we have to try to keep it alive and keep going.”
Serbia’s first chance to tie up top spot next month comes in Austria before they entertain Georgia three days later.
Wales head to Georgia for their penultimate clash before their final qualifier at home to the Republic.
Coleman admitted it was a “scary” night in Chisinau as Wales had to wait until 10 minutes from time to make the breakthrough.
When the goal came it was again down to Ben Woodburn, the 17-year-old Liverpool striker.
Woodburn scored on his debut against Austria on Saturday less than five minutes after coming on as a second-half substitute.
This time he crowned an impressive 30-minute performance by setting up Robson-Kanu’s diving header with a wonderful run and cross.