As Wales reflect on their first back-to-back Six Nations defeats for seven years, the questions are stacking up for Rob Howley. Hywel Picken, from rugby blog The Scarlet Way, is not convinced the Wales coach has a clear enough vision to find the answers.

 

Rob Howley looked a broken man at the Murrayfield post-match press conference. Warren Gatland, watching on from the stands, looked stunned as the Scots cantered to victory. Where now for Warren’s Wales? Where now for his coaching staff? Gatland would argue that the Welsh decline is not on his watch. The reality is that the decline set-in in 2014. When was the last great Welsh performance? The defensive effort versus Ireland in March 2015? The valiant, defensive effort versus England during the RWC? Fading memories.

There is much talk on social media about Wales’ game-plan. Warrenball is Warren’s way. Let’s make this clear; there is nothing wrong with Warrenball – if it works. Rugby is a simple game and if you can win the collisions then, generally, you will win the game. People laud New Zealand’s often breath-taking rugby but fail to mention that, routinely, they win the collisions. Just think about the likes of Jerome Kaino, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Julian Savea, Keiron Read or Malakai Fekitoa. Think about the physicality of Sam Cane, marry that with the razor-sharp decision making of Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett and the metronomic efficiency of Bin Smith and Israel Dagg. New Zealand are the complete package. They can outmuscle you, they can out-think you and they can out-run you.

Warren’s decision to make Wales play Warrenball was a pragmatic decision and pragmatism is not necessarily a bad thing. Warren recognised Wales’ emerging players as sizeable monsters and utilised their skills. Jamie Roberts, George North, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Dan Lydiate and Sam Warburton all emerged and they were all big and strong. None of them are extravagantly talented, something that Warren recognised. What he did recognise was that, if he drilled them relentlessly and minimised errors while putting the opposition under pressure physically, they would get results. This has been consistently true against limited sides and Gatland’s decade with Wales has coincided with an imploding England, a muddled and disorganised France and a dreadful Scotland. His record against the better sides is damning with only 3 wins gleaned versus the big three of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.

Here in Wales, for too long, we were seduced by Gatland’s 6 Nations success and you cannot argue that 3 tournament victories saw his popularity with the Welsh public reach frenzied levels. This success was built on hard-work and cryotherapy. Around him he constructed a cabal of yes men, all of whom are disciples of Warrenball. Above him was Roger and Roger was only too happy to award his golden-goose a long term contract, totally ignoring whether it was for the good of Welsh rugby. Gatland was only too happy accept his bumper deal and insist on his coaching team being awarded deals too. Lewis’ blatant running down of the regions was ignored and there were many barbs about the condition of the players on their arrival to camp at the Jail of Glamorgan.

Wales’ defeat to Scotland was due to a high error count. Their defeat to England was due to a series of errors when the players were wilting under the pressure of physical and mental fatigue. The reality is that we made chances. The damning indictment is that the skill levels are not there to take the chances in clinical fashion. The failure to take chances cannot be laid at Howley’s door either, after all, he is not the one dropping the passes or shanking the kicks. What can be levelled at Howley’s Wales is that there is a total lack of clarity of vision. In any organisation, it is essential that you begin with the why. The vision of what is attempted to be achieved must be clear and focused. When that is clear, you move on to how you will achieve it. Howley is hopelessly caught between two stools. He cannot openly denounce Warrenball as it is likely that it is a style that Warren will favour this summer. In addition, if Howley were to throw out his own rugby principles and attempt to play an open, fast and loose game, what message does this send to the players? If you totally change your game-plan you are, fundamentally, telling your players that they are a) not good enough to implement it (as we have seen versus SH teams) or b) that the principles you have been preaching for so long are flawed. Either way, you are undermined.

Against Scotland, with an hour gone, Howley reverted to the tried and tested and he brought Jamie Roberts on for a bit of good old-fashioned route one. Five minutes later he introduced Sam Davies. The clarity of vision is not there. You can see it in his selection. You can see it through the muddled messages in press conferences. You can see it in the lack of composure, accuracy and execution on the field. Gwyn Jones absolutely nailed it on Scrum V, why play Scott Williams when you are asking him to play like Jamie Roberts? Don’t believe the routine soundbites from the Welsh camp, this is Warrenball with a nonsense of hundreds and thousands sprinkled on top.

If the message is not clear, how can the attitude be right? If the selection is muddled how can the message be clear? There has been a growing clamour for Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny to switch positions. Frankly, this is a nonsense. Ben Smith, Israel Dagg and Julian Savea are interchangeable and intelligent enough to create a fluid back three. Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour are exceptional rugby players. Jack Nowell, Elliott Daly and Anthony Watson are at home anywhere across the back three. Similarly, just look at Keith Earls and Simon Zebo across the channel. It is a damning indictment of the skill levels in the squad that we are even having this discussion.

So what is the answer? Change the personnel? If Howley were to make five or six changes ahead of our final two fixtures, not only would it sour whatever relationship he has left with his current charges, it would also likely result in Ireland steamrollering a team of novice internationals. The lack of clarity of vision has meant that Howley has favoured short-termism and self-interest thus far. The reality that is beginning to dawn on many Welsh fans is the likelihood that we are stuck with this coaching team until the 2019 World Cup. With that in mind, does Howley take a longer term view and look to blood youngsters like Keelan Giles and Steff Evans? Does he install Sam Davies as his fly half and accept that he will make errors? Essentially, will he put the team ahead of himself and accept that, in the short term at least, things could get a whole lot worse?

Howley has some dilemma to ponder over the next ten days. The decisions that he makes will tell you much about the man himself. 16 months have passed since the conclusion of the last World Cup and Warren’s Wales have resolutely resisted change. The question for Howley is an intriguing one. Does he want to be remembered as Warren’s henchman? Is he prepared to go down with the good ship Warrenball? Or will he take the harder route? A route that could see him begin to reshape a playing squad and a rugby nation?

Big changes are needed. Has Howley got the ability and mettle to make them?

This article appears courtesy of The Scarlet Way – @thescarletway