As Wales coach Rob Howley prepares to name his team to face South Africa on Saturday, Gareth Hughes says it is time for the caretaker to be bold in approach – and selection – against opponents who themselves are on the ropes.
“Expectation is at the root of all heartache”- Shakespeare/Welsh rugby supporter.
On Saturday Wales and South Africa will face each other in the midst of a media frenzy of disappointment and scathing criticism.
The quality of rugby played by them during the autumn internationals has been so uninspiring it has been seen as symptomatic of the terminal decline of Welsh and South African rugby. Allister Coetzee ,the coach of SA is fighting for his job, and has promised to beat Wales ‘at all costs’ and Rob Howley of Wales is desperately seeking the credibility to prove that he is the anointed successor to Warren Gatland.
For Wales, there is a sense that the country is being left behind, that the rugby they are playing has had its day. The statistics support the notion that since 2013 Wales has been enduring a slow but steady decline.
Many of the players have not changed since 2011; although hugely experienced, they do not look capable of bringing anything new to their game. Yet, in Liam Williams, George North, Scott Williams and Gareth Davies, Wales possess some of the best runners and finishers in world rugby but they are failing to live up to the expectations of supporters.
Wales will play in the familiar surroundings of the Principality stadium and that should be a bubbling cauldron of national ferocity and desire against a SA low on confidence and morale, but, tragically, most Welsh supporters expect a loss.
Yes, SA will be desperate to win, to salvage some pride from what is shaping up to be their most disastrous tour ever. Luckily, SA are a side as easy as Wales have apparently become to work out. As Nick Mallet, ex SA coach and now pundit, said on Saturday, ‘Springbok attacks are too simplistic, all you need to stop them is to be brave. Match the Bok physicality and there is not much left.’
Despite this, it has to be noted that Wales have faced SA 31 times and won only twice. This will, and should, reinforce the Springbok belief that they can win this match. But if Wales can match their famed physicality – and what they have failed to show so far in the autumn is not courage or commitment, rather composure and assuredness under pressure, the ability to run into space rather than the opposition – then this a match Wales certainly have the talent to win.
However tempting it is for Howley and his coterie of coaches to circle the wagons they must not. Success for Wales will come from taking heart from the positive approach shown by both Scotland and Ireland, who have rattled sides by their willingness to attack at pace and in numbers.
There are many aspects of Wales’ recent play that have been disappointing; the forwards have lacked devil, have not carried well and exhibited poor awareness at the breakdown in creating the quick ball with which the backs need to attack. Japan and Australia exposed this naivety and lack of organisation repeatedly and ruthlessly.
SA will be just as much of a challenge. There is so much riding on this game for both sides and the winner that will emerge will be the one that maintains the high quality of their play under pressure and clinically takes their chances. What Wales will need to do is to avoid the inevitable brutal collisions that the Springboks will be desperate for and look to finesse their way through a crowded midfield and into the spaces beyond the gainline.
SA shorn of many of its stars, including the totemic Eben Etzebeth, will find it difficult to change from their traditional confrontational approach and this should allow Howley to work out a game plan to circumvent it.
On Saturday Howley and several of the players need to stand up and be counted and show the type of side Wales can be under his tutelage. When he announces his selection for the match it should show what he believes the team could do and show that it is really his team.
If he decides to stick with the tried and tested expectations will be low. But if he is brave and selects the mercurial Sam Davies at 10, Scott Williams at centre, and a back row of Ross Moriaty, Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tirpuric – with Warburton to come off the bench – then expectations will rise.
Crucially, so will the risks, but more significantly so will the chance of high rewards.